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New Star predicts rate cut

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Interest rates might be cut by the Bank of England to stave off the apparent economic slowdown, New Star Asset Management has suggested.

The bank's Monetary Policy Commission is predicted to split by five members to four in favour of a 0.25 per cent reduction by the analysts' 'MPC-ometer' statistical poll.

Should the rate be reduced from its current level of 5.25 per cent to five per cent, mortgage and personal loan repayments should also become slightly cheaper.

Economist at New Star Simon Ward suggested that economic fallout from the continuing credit crunch would override fears of rising inflation - fears which have been cited by other economists as a reason for rate cuts to be held off.

"The last Inflation Report indicated that the MPC expected to cut interest rates but was inclined to be cautious because of near-term inflationary pressures," he said.

"Credit market conditions have, however, deteriorated further since its last meeting, suggesting greater downside risks to the economy and a possible inflation undershoot over the medium term."

According to New Star, its MPC-ometer correctly predicts 90 per cent of interest rate decisions from the bank.

Of the remaining ten per cent, half of the poll's errors stem from correctly predicting a change in interest rates one month early.

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